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Job Growth Surges in September, Signaling Economic Resilience.

The September jobs report paints a picture of a labor market that is not only resilient but also surprisingly strong. This positive news, coupled with upward revisions for previous months and a continued upward trend in average hourly earnings, offers a reassuring signal about the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. However, the slight decrease in the average workweek serves as a reminder that some uncertainty persists, and the Federal Reserve will need to carefully weigh all available indicators when making decisions about future monetary policy actions.

The August jobs report demonstrates that the U.S. labor market is slowing but still healthy.

In August, the U.S. economy demonstrated moderate growth, adding a less-than-expected 142,000 jobs. In addition, downward revisions to June and July equaled 86,000 fewer jobs added than initially thought, reflecting a market that may be cooling faster than expected. Revisions are part of the process; however, revisions have been high this year, suggesting employers may have added 2.1 million new jobs rather than the 2.9 million initially reported. At the same time, modest wage growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate reflected a market that remains solid.

Job Growth Slowed Significantly in July, while the Unemployment Rate Climbed to 4.3%

The July Labor Market Report showed significantly lower-than-expected job growth and the highest unemployment rate since 2021. Stocks plummeted as financial markets were panicked due to fears that the economy was weakening. While some economists state that the Sahm Rule has been triggered, indicating a recession has started (happens when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest during the previous 12 months), others say there’s no need to panic.

Job Growth Slowed in June but Remains Healthy

The labor market continues to be resilient. There are signs that the unprecedented growth over the last three years is gradually leveling off, but the market still shows strength. The U.S. economy added more jobs in June than expected. Still, the gains were narrow, primarily across a few sectors, including health care and social assistance, government and construction. Several sectors saw employment shrink, including manufacturing, retail trade and professional and business services. Yet, the market is strong, and rising unemployment with slowing wage growth should help bring inflation under control without tipping the economy into recession. The June jobs report could pressure the Fed to cut interest rates finally.