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April Jobs Market: Hiring Remains Firm with Signs of Slowing.

The increase in average hourly earnings is below estimates and is a promising sign for inflation. A softer than expected U.S. jobs report fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve could start cutting rates soon. Some economists predict a decrease as early as July or September.

The Numbers*:

The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs, lower than the 12-month average of 242,000 jobs added per month and  gains were far less than the 240,000 predicted by Dow Jones.

The unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.9%. The unemployment rate has remained between the narrow range of 3.7% and 3.9% since August 2023. The number of unemployed people also rose slightly to 6.5M.

The unemployment rate for adult men increased to 3.6%, while it decreased to 3.5% for adult women.

Teenagers made gains as their rate of unemployment dropped from 12.6% in March to 11.7% in April.

The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7%.

The number of open jobs decreased to 8.5M.

• Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% and 3.9% from a year ago or about 7 cents. Lower than expected.
• Average weekly hours worked ticked down by 0.1 hours, back to February’s 34.3 hours per week.
• The total number of hires decreased to 5.5M and total separations decreased to 5.2M.
• Within separations, quits changed little at 3.3 million or 2.1%
  

February open jobs were revised down by 34,000: from +270,000 to +236,000, while March was revised up by 12,000, from +303,000 to +315,000.

Industry Trends:

Interesting, Related Facts:

The jobless rate for discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged up to 7.4%. All racial groups except for blacks, including both males and females, saw an increase in unemployment. However, the labor force participation rate among black Americans slipped. The softness in the jobs report led to some positive reactions, including a jump in stock futures and positive reactions in the Asian markets.

Jason Furman, President Barack Obama’s top economic advisor, noted this was a “goldilocks” report. That is, the economy could be headed for a soft landing of reasonable inflation and low unemployment.

According to Forbes, labor force growth is critical for keeping the job market from overheating. Very high levels of immigration in the past year (estimated by the federal government to be 3 million people) helped add workers to the labor market while lowering inflation pressure.