The resilient labor market shows healthy job growth, lower unemployment and some wage growth. In November, the labor market added 199,000 jobs, higher than the Dow Jones estimate and ahead of October gains. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in November to 3.7% as the labor force participation rate increased to 62.8%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, up 4% from a year ago.
The Numbers*:
- The U.S. economy added 199,000 jobs in November.
- Job additions came in above the Dow Jones estimate of +190,000 and nearly 50,000 jobs higher than October’s gain of 150,000.
- The unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.7%.
- The duration of unemployment fell sharply, dropping to an average of 19.4 weeks, the lowest since February.
- Average hourly earnings gained 0.4%, up 4.0% year-on-year.
- Though wage growth is a key inflation indicator, inflation slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in November, down from 3.2% in October and far below the June 2022 pandemic-era peak of 9.1%.
- The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million, down 617,000.
- Job openings decreased in health care and social assistance (-236,000), finance and insurance (-168,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (-49,000).
- Job openings increased in information (+39,000).
- The number of hires and total separations remained at 5.9M (3.7%). Total separations changed slightly at 5.6M (3.6%) for the fifth month.
- There was little change within the separations, quits (3.6M) and layoffs and discharges (1.6M).
- The number of hires decreased in accommodation and food service (-110,000).
- The number of total separations increased in professional and business services (+121,000).
- The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.8%, remaining essentially flat since August.
- Average weekly hours worked rose 0.1 hour back to 34.4.
- The number of jobs added in October remained at 150,000.
- The number of jobs added in September was further reduced by 35,000 from +297,000 to +262,000.
Industry Trends:
- Health care significantly increased again, adding 77,000 jobs in November.
- Ambulatory care continued to trend up (+36,000), with hospitals (+24,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+17,000) also having solid gains.
- Government added 49,000 jobs, with the largest gains in local government (+32,000).
- Manufacturing increased by 28,000 due to 30,000 in motor vehicles and parts returning from the strike.
- Leisure and hospitality added 40,000, almost entirely in food services and drinking businesses.
- Information added jobs this month (+10,000), as did the motion picture and sound recording industries (+17,000) via their strike ending.
- Retail saw the most substantial losses in November, with a 38,000 job decrease.
Interesting Facts:
The strong labor market helped the U.S. avoid a 2023 recession. Inflation fell to 3.1% in November, and continued stabilization may lead to a soft landing – inflation reaching the Fed’s 2% goal without a full recession – in 2024.
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* Above represents November 2023 Data
Sources:
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
- https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-november-2023-in-one-chart.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/08/jobs-report-november-2023-us-payrolls-rose-199000-in-november-unemployment-rate-falls-to-3point7percent.html
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202311.htm
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/bill_stone/2023/12/10/solid-jobs-report-was-just-right-for-markets/
- https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-jobs-report-november-2023
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-accelerates-november-unemployment-rate-drops-37-2023-12-08/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-unemployment-unexpectedly-declines-in-november-as-us-labor-market-continues-to-impress-133205002.html
- https://finance.yahoo.com/video/november-jobs-data-soft-landing-141719619.html
- https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate#:~:text=Basic%20Info,month%20and%208.20%25%20last%20year