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What are the Signs Telling Us?

Despite beginning the year under the cloud of a partial federal government shutdown, the U.S. labor market is demonstrating pockets of strength.

Is It a Hiring Freeze Nation?

The final jobs report of 2025 highlights a challenging U.S. labor market. Hiring momentum slowed significantly this year, raising an important question: Are we entering a period of widespread hiring freezes?

The U.S. labor market is shifting gears.

November’s Employment Situation report shows job growth slowing to 64,000 positions and unemployment holding at 4.6%, signaling a transition from the red-hot hiring of recent years to a more measured pace. While health care and construction remain strong, other sectors are cooling, and wage growth is moderating without reversing. For employers, this means moving from “acute scarcity” to “selective competition”—a moment to rethink strategies for attracting and retaining talent in a changing landscape.

 October Sees Return of Private Sector Job Growth

The government shutdown has frozen the official BLS employment report and other crucial datasets, increasing reliance on high-frequency, private data such as ADP, Challenger and Reuters.

Despite a challenging backdrop and another month of the government shutdown, October’s gain of 42,000 private sector jobs signals a hopeful shift in labor market momentum. This marks the first positive movement since July, suggesting that employers may be regaining confidence and beginning to stabilize after months of uncertainty. Steady wage growth of 4.5% year-over-year further reinforces this resilience, indicating that businesses remain willing to invest in talent and maintain competitive compensation, even amid cautious hiring trends.