The U.S. economy added a far-better-than-expected 272,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4%, its highest level in more than two years. The labor market remains strong, with good news in terms of growth and participation. It continues to fuel the economy and support workers. At the same time, the report has some concerning, underlying numbers to watch, such as the unemployment rate, wage growth, part-time employment rate and the number of discouraged workers leaving the workforce.
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April Jobs Market: Hiring Remains Firm with Signs of Slowing.
The increase in average hourly earnings is below estimates and is a promising sign for inflation. A softer than expected U.S. jobs report fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve could start cutting rates soon. Some economists predict a decrease as early as July or September.
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The labor market continues to impress with the 40th straight month of job growth and an unemployment rate that ticked lower. Job gains in Q1 2024 averaged 276,000 per month, compared to the Q4 2023 average of 212,000 jobs added each month. The jobless rate fell as more people entered the workforce. Gains were broad-based. Wages, an important inflation metric, increased slightly, up 0.3% to 4.1% year-over-year (YOY). It was the lowest annual gain since June 2021.
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February marked the 39th straight month of job growth, reflecting an exceptionally strong recovery from the widespread job losses during the pandemic. Unemployment rose to 3.9%, a two-year high, but remained under 4% for the 25th consecutive month. This is the longest stretch of unemployment below 4% since the 1960s. While we have a strong labor market, fears that it was getting too hot again were somewhat allayed this month with the rise in unemployment, the revision of the January and December job numbers, and a weak rise in wages.
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