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Job Growth Slowed in June but Remains Healthy

The labor market continues to be resilient. There are signs that the unprecedented growth over the last three years is gradually leveling off, but the market still shows strength. The U.S. economy added more jobs in June than expected. Still, the gains were narrow, primarily across a few sectors, including health care and social assistance, government and construction. Several sectors saw employment shrink, including manufacturing, retail trade and professional and business services. Yet, the market is strong, and rising unemployment with slowing wage growth should help bring inflation under control without tipping the economy into recession. The June jobs report could pressure the Fed to cut interest rates finally.

• The U.S. economy showed continued strength, adding 206,000 jobs in June. However, the rising unemployment rate and downward revision of May/June numbers to -111,000 could be signs of a softening market.
• Hourly pay continued to rise, but the year-over-year figure was the smallest rise since June 2021 - good news for the Fed’s fight against inflation.

The Numbers*:

The U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June. Gains were slightly higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 200,000. Gains aligned with the average of 220,000 over the past 12 months.

The unemployment rate rose again in June to 4.1%, a level not seen since October 2021 but still historically low. The number of unemployed people rose to 6.8M in June. The rise was due, in large part, to the 277,000 people who began looking for work, and not all of them were able to find jobs right away.

The number of open jobs remained at 8.1M, reduced by 1.2M over the year.

Labor force participation increased slightly in June to 62.6%. There was little change in the participation rate over the year. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27+ weeks) rose by 166,000 to 1.5M, up from 1.1M a year ago. The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons (those unable to find full-time work or having their hours reduced) remained at 4.2M.

• Average hourly earnings increased by 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $35.00.
  • Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.
• Average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours per week for the third consecutive month.
  • In manufacturing, the average work week was 40.2 hours, with overtime holding steady at 3.0 hours per week.  
• The total number of hires rose slightly to 5.8M, while total separations remained at 5.4M.
• Within separations, quits remained at 3.5M, and layoffs and discharges were at 1.7M.
  • Total separations were down by 424,000 over the year.
  • Quits were down 550,000 over the year.
    

April was revised down by 57,000 from +165,000 to +108,000 and May was revised down by 54,000 from +272,000 to +218,000.

Industry Trends:

Worker groups:
The unemployment rate for adult men held steady at 3.8%. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% for adult women. Teenagers’ rate of unemployment decreased slightly to 12.1%.